2019 is a special year for both foreign trade and manufacturing enterprises. This year, GDP growth is expected to be further revised downwards, high-quality development policies continue to increase, economic transformation benefits and transformation pain simultaneously appear. By the macro-environment impact and the industry’s own development restrictions, zipper industry will also usher in a new round of industrial upgrading and transfer of the boom, industrial transformation has become the theme of industrial development. Entering 2019, China’s zipper struck a smooth start, zipper exports continued to maintain a steady and progressive development trend, the industry’s high-quality development has been steadily advanced, and all the data are in line with the overall expectations of industrial development.
First, the overall situation of zipper import and export is stable
According to customs data, in the first quarter of 2019, China’s total import and export of zippers was US$320 million, an increase of 2.84 percent over the same period last year. Imports amounted to US$551 million, down 9.48 percent year-on-year, while exports amounted to US$268 million, up 5.6 percent year-on-year, and the trade surplus of zipperimports expanded further to US$217 million. Compared with the same period last year, export growth has slowed, but still maintain edifying in a good operating range, benefiting from the domestic high-end zipper support gradually mature, domestic high-end zipper gradually fill the gap in the domestic market, zipper imports further decline, the decline of 5.2 percentage points from last year. In the long run, China’s zippers still hold great potential, in the high-end zipper market will continue to devour YKK market share.
On a monthly basis: In January, zipper exports amounted to US$123 million, up 21.82% YoY, and zipper imports amounted to US$1.15 billion, down 15.1% YoY; Zipper exports were US$0.94 billion, up 51.07 percent year-on-year, while zipper imports were US$0.22 billion, down 9.06 percent year-on-year. In the first three months of 2019, the amount of imports and exports fluctuated considerably, mainly due to seasonal influence, and the phenomenon of a weak shift in the light months.
By product type: In the first quarter, total imports and exports of metal zippers were US$0.51 billion, down 6.96% YoY, of which US$0.04 billion was imported from metal zippers, down 28% YoY, and exports were US$0.47 billion, down 4.24% YoY Total imports and exports of nylon and injection-molded zippers amounted to US$175 million, up 6.56% YoY, of which US$27 million was imported, down 12.7% YoY, and exports were US$152 million, up 6.48% YoY; Imports were $24 million, down 1.31% year-on-year, and exports were $668 million, up 3.3% year-on-year. Data show that China’s nylon and injection-molded zippers have been the main products of zipper exports, accounting for about 76% of total exports, and the recent growth trend is obvious, metal zipper exports continue dyed, market demand weakened, zipper parts exports increased slightly, with the acceleration of the global economic recovery process and the pace of domestic industrial transfer, International zipper production supporting demand will appear in the near future, there will be significant signs of growth.
Second, zipper export supra-up trend, import and export prices show two days.
In the first quarter, China’s metal zipper imports amounted to 117 million meters, up 5.17% YoY, while nylon and injection-molded zipper exports amounted to 1.18 billion meters, up 6.48% YoY, and zipper parts exported 11,371 tons, up 2.27% YoY. Zipper exports in volume has achieved year-on-year growth momentum, indicating that international demand in the growth and the actual competitiveness of domestic zippers in the strengthening, but, from the product price, by the overall metal zipper market is not affected by the metal zipper market, metal zippers also appear to rise and fall, enterprises have to obtain metal zipper export orders through low-cost strategy, in order to fill the factory production window period. In the first quarter, the average export unit price of metal zippers was $0.4/m, down 8.95 percent year-on-year. Exports of nylon and injection-molded zippers grew at a rate of flat compared with previous years, but rose slightly in product prices. Data show that in the first quarter, the average export unit price of nylon and injection-molded zippers was $0.13/m, up 3.48% year-on-year. The average export unit price of zipper parts was US$6.03/kg, up 1.01% YoY.
In addition, imported zippers have shown a better momentum. Statistics show that in the first quarter of this year, the unit price of metal zippers was $1.13 per meter, up 8.49 percent year-on-year, and the import unit price was nearly three times the unit price of exports. The import price of nylon and injection-molded zippers was US$0.82/m, more than six times the unit price of domestic zipperexports, and the price increased by 8.95 per cent over the same period last year. The import unit price of zipper parts was US$17.28/kg, up 4.35% year-on-year and nearly three times the export price. From the above data can be seen, imported zipper products in the price has been far ahead of the domestic zipper, and in the price increase space more say. In the field of high-end zipper products, domestic zippers still have a long way to go.
Third, the zipper export pattern basically remains unchanged
In terms of export regions, the top 10 provinces of China’s zipper exports in the first quarter were: Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Fujian, Guangxi, Liaoning, Shandong, Xinjiang and Jiangxi, with exports amounting to US$0.93 billion, US$0.73 billion, US$0.23 billion, US$0.22 billion, US$0.07 billion, US$0.06 billion, US$0.05 billion, US$0.04 billion and US$0.03 billion, with the top 10 export ingested provinces accounting for 95.84 percent of the country’s total zipper exports. Among them, Zhejiang and Guangdong as zipper export provinces, the two provinces together accounted for 61.88 percent of the country’s total zipper exports, accounting for a decline in previous years, but still China’s zipper the most important export source. From the data in recent years, China’s zipper export pattern is basically unchanged, the southeast coast in the number of industries, supporting maturity and export convenience is better than the inland provinces, in a long time this pattern will not be broken. In terms of the competitiveness of export products, Shanghai area zipper export unit price is the highest, the average unit price is 5.22 dollars, of which, zipper parts price is more than twice the national export average. Second, the export unit price of metal zippers in Liaoning area exceeds US$1, and the unit price of other zipper exports exceeds the national average, benefiting from the YKK Dalian factory, which has been one of the important sources of China’s zipper export. It is worth noting that in recent years, the export of zippers in the central and western regions has shown a clear growth trend, Jiangxi, Xinjiang, Guangxi, Anhui and other regions based on location advantages are constantly joining the ranks of China’s zipper industry cluster.
Fourth, China’s main export countries and regions of zipper
In the first quarter of 2019, China’s main export countries and regions for zippers were (top 10) Hong Kong, Vietnam, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Indonesia, India, Cambodia, Turkey, Russia and Pakistan, with corresponding exports amounting to US$0.36 billion, US$0.21 billion, US$18 million, US$ 113 million, US$0.13 million, US$12 million, US$0.10 billion, US$ 0.07 million and US$ 0.06 billion. China’s zipper exports to the top 10 traditional markets were basically the same as in previous years. The top 10 export markets accounted for 62% of China’s total zipper exports, up from last year. It is worth noting that exports to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vietnam, India and other Southeast Asian markets showed a year-on-year growth trend, seven of the top 10 belong to the Southeast Asian market, accounting for 42% of China’s total zipper exports.
V. China’s zipper market environment forecast
1, macroeconomic confusion.
Affected by weakening growth momentum, rising protectionism, lower commodity prices and normalising monetary policy in advanced economies, China began to fall into the middle-income trap unconsciously in 2019 as domestic macroeconomic growth slowed year-on-year. China’s economic outlook is uncertain. In the first quarter of 2019, China’s GDP was 21.34 trillion yuan, up 6.4% YoY, down 4 percentage points from the same period last year. The growth rate accelerated by 1.2 percentage points from January to February, 0.8 percentage points faster than in the fourth quarter of the previous year, down 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year. The growth rate accelerated by 0.1 percentage points from January to February, down 1.5 percentage points from the same period a year earlier. Of this total, exports amounted to 376.74 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7%, while imports amounted to 323.7 7 billion yuan, an increase of 0.3%. Imports and exports accounted for a surplus of 529.7 billion yuan, an increase of 75.2% over the same period last year.
From the first quarter of macroeconomic data, steady growth and adjustment of structure, promote high-quality economic transformation has achieved some results, but the continuous decline in domestic consumption on the other hand shows that the economy’s endogenous growth momentum is insufficient, the real effect of policy stimulus and macro-control has not yet appeared, the economic downside risks still exist.
2, metal zipper or will enter a relatively low state.
In the first quarter of this year, whether it was the import and export of metal zippers, the performance was not satisfactory. In the domestic market, enterprises are also complaining about this year’s metal zipper market is very depressed, the phenomenon of price-grabbing is more common, in fact, this is the impact of the macroeconomic downturn. In the first quarter, China’s textile and clothing shoes and hats retail sales increased by only 3.3%, per capita clothing consumption expenditure increased by 1.7%, textile and clothing into the idle growth period, overcapacity and inventory backlog also make the demand for zippers further reduced. In addition, downstream industry profit margins are generally low, making the relatively high price of metal zippers easily replaced by nylon and injection-molded zippers. This has also led to nylon injection-molded zippers and metal zippers showing a two-day market state of ice and fire.
3, the industry export profit margin suffered, industry competition into the white heat stage.
From the above zipper export data can be seen, in the horizontal comparison, China’s zipper export price is low, the profit margin is thin, especially the metal zipper even appeared a large price phenomenon, the competition is very fierce. In the low-end market, China’s zipper has been saturated, excess capacity is an indisputable fact, which is also in recent years zipper prices do lower, more and more no profit the main reason, industry competition into the white heat stage, relying on price advantage to do market competition to become the first choice of enterprises, rather than from technological innovation and fashion design and other aspects of efforts. Facing the blank and crowded middle-end market, China’s zipper needs to change the competitive and business thinking, change the driving mode of enterprise development, to promote enterprise competition to the middle and high-end market, to high value-added products, this is the only way out.
4, Southeast Asia will continue to become China’s zipper export growth of the main market.
Looking at the development trend of the world’s industrial pattern, especially in recent years, the pace of transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry has accelerated, making Southeast Asia more and more a value depression favored by enterprises. In particular, Vietnam and Bangladesh and other places, in recent years by the global industrial chain division of labor restructuring boom and local policies, demographic dividends and other attractions, textile, machinery, chemicals, electronics and other industries in the region rapid development. Vietnam and Bangladesh have also become the world’s largest ready-to-wear export markets after China, maintaining strong growth momentum. These local textile and garment supporting zipper industry has not yet formed economies of scale, still rely on China’s zipper exports, so, in the future for a long time, Southeast Asia will continue to become China’s zipper export growth of the main target market.
5, by the policy and cost overlay risk, the industry to the Midwest value depression transfer pace accelerated
In recent years, zipper enterprises are feeling the pressure. On the one hand. The industrial transformation and upgrading of coastal areas has accelerated, for the relatively low-end zipper industry has long been subject to environmental protection, financing, land and other policy pressure, on the other hand, China’s zipper industry competition has also made China’s zipper prices have been low, coupled with the recent rising costs of raw materials and manpower, This also, on the other hand, forces the zipper enterprises to move to other value areas, seeking the next stage of stable development. From the pace of industrial transfer in recent years, the central region has increasingly become the best choice of zipper industry, the central region on the one hand to throw away the policy permission of the olive branch, on the other hand, the emergence of the return tide also let the demographic dividend back to the central province of the population, China’s zipper industry transfer has brought no small attraction. In recent years, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and other regions in the zipper export growth is obvious, but also reflects this trend from the side.